McCain takes a gamble

Perhaps this guy should run for Mayor of Las Vegas! Today, John McCain announced that he would temporarily suspend his campaign in order to return to Washington and the Senate to help craft legislation dealing with the bailout crisis. McCain pulled all TV advertising, cancelled all campaign appearances after Thursday and asked the Presidential Debate Committee to suspend Friday’s scheduled debate. He also asked for Obama to also suspend his campaign and to return to Washington with him in a spirit of unity in order to ensure bailout legislation is passed as soon as possible. Obama’s reaction to this: the show must go on. The Obama campaign was having none of it and indicated business would continue as usual.

So what do I think of this? I think this could be a golden opportunity for McCain. If he can help get proper legislation passed and to look presidential and non-paritisan, while Barry sits down in Mississippi preparing for a debate that’s not going to happen, McCain will come out looking like a serious statesman and Obama will come out looking like a spoiled brat kid.

McCain has to stand firm however. He must not give in to the powers-that-be (the media) that insist that the debate will go on. McCain must put his foot down and say “I’ll be ready to debate Senator Obama, as I have been for the past few months, despite Senator Obama’s refusals, as soon as my fellow legislators and I, working with Treasury Secretary Paulson and the Administration, have passed legislation that mitigates this crisis that we are currently facing in our economy. The debates between Senator Obama and I are important, and they will occur, so that the American people can be shown the clear differences on where each of us wants to take our country. But these debates pale in importance compared to the economic emergency we are facing now.”

That would pretty much be a slam dunk statement right there. Let Obama debate an empty chair if he wants to (he’ll probabaly lose). But keep demonstrating that you are the only one who is “above politics” and the only one who would rather lose a campaign than lose a war for the American people.

God this was a smart move.

The state of Virginia

SurveyUSA has just released a poll today with Obama up by 6 points in Virginia. This is very bad news for John McCain. Without Virginia, it’s almost impossible that he can win the presidency. Republicans and analysts can talk about possible Republican takeaways of blue states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania, but if anyone believes that, I’ve got a hair plug shop to sell them in Deleware (doing quite well, actually).

For a state that Bush won by 8 in 2000 against Gore and by 7 in 2004 against Kerry, it’s a bit of a shock to see a Democrat up 6 points at this point in this reliably red state. That’s a 14 point swing! To me, that just doesn’t seem credible, no matter how many new people have moved into the state. HotAir.com points out that SurveyUSA is usually fairly accurate in its polling (sidenote: I wish more polling companies would make this information available!). I decided to look into that claim a little more closely.

In the 2004 election, SurveyUSA’s final prediction was for Bush to win the state by a 51-47 margin. The actual result was that Bush won 54 to 45. SurveyUSA’s prediction thus fell short of Bush’s share of the vote by 3 percentage points and overpredicted Kerry’s support by 2 percentage points. That is not an insignificant difference.

For the Democratic nomination contest in Virginia, SurveyUSA predicted Obama would win 60-38 over Clinton. He actually won 63-35 over Clinton and SurveyUSA had, by far, the prediction that matched most closely to the final vote.

These two examples obviously show opposite results, with one poll overestimating the Democratic candidate’s numbers and the other underestimating Obama’s final numbers, but there is such a difference betwen a presidential election and a closed party nomination contest, that I don’t think we can draw too many conclusions here. The polls in Virgina have always shown a tight race, but one where McCain was consistently ahead. That began to turn a couple weeks ago and now Obama is just one point behind McCain in the RCP poll average. This looks especially ominous as the most recent polls are going Obama’s way.

It looks like McCain will have a real fight on his hands to keep Virginia red. I suggest getting Governor Palin out there early and often in the Old Dominion. Perhaps she can save the day in that state as she has for McCain’s campaign overall.

Should Repubs be worried about this? You bet your sweet asses we should!

My predictions for Nov 4th

If you’d asked me before the Palin pick, I would’ve said that Obama would win a narrow popular vote victory, but by a large electoral vote margin. The Palin pick turned everything upside down however, as she’s energized the base and, just as importantly, energized McCain.

The advantages are all still with Obama (mainstream press in his pocket, unpopular Republican president, bad economy), but McCain actually has a shot at it now and he owes it all to that little firecracker from Alaska.

Despite the uphill battle, this election will be a very close one, reflecting once again that this country remains almost evenly divided between conservatives and liberals. The states that were solidly red in 2000 and 2004 should, for the most part, remain red, as will the states that have been blue. The race will come down to, as always, the battleground states with familiar names like Ohio, Florida, New Mexico and Colorado.

For some reason, formerly red New Hampshire seems to have turned fairly solidly blue. Perhaps liberal Northeasterners are moving up there in greater numbers? So that will likely be a net +4 EV gain for Obama over Kerry’s totals. Likewise, Iowa and New Mexico seem poised to go blue this year as well, giving Obama a further 12 EVs over Kerry. Adding these to Kerry’s 2004 total, Obama thus has 264 votes locked up. A candidate only needs 270 to win, so McCain has to hold the line right there.

McCain simply HAS to win Florida and Ohio. There is no compromise on this. Either he wins those two states or he loses the election. Obviously he must win a state like Virginia, which is supposedly trending blue, but it’s hard to believe McCain will lose there with its military veterans and red history. Giving McCain all the red states Bush won in 2004 but minus Iowa, New Mexico, New Hampshire and, our newest battleground state of Colorado, McCain has 265 electoral votes in the bag. Which means it all comes down to… Colorado, with its 9 electoral votes.

Now granted, there is a lot of hubbub in the press about Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania being possibly turnable blue states. Me, I don’t buy it. If Obama is losing blue states like that, then this election will be a landslide for McCain. As divided as we are and as tight as the race is, I just don’t see a landslide happening for either candidate. So it all does come down to Colorado.

So Coloradans, who’s gonna be our next president?

Now, to the quick

We are 40-odd days out from the 2008 election. This upcoming day of reckoning is what has inspired me to open this blog, because I am a seriously deranged political junkie. I will do weird/scary/possibly illegal things such as stay up until 3 IN THE MORNING in order to catch Morning Joe on MSNBC just because watching the 3 cable channels all night long has STILL not given me my fix. How’s that for sick?

As for where I stand, cover your hair and eyes because, ladies and gentlemen, I am the reddest of red meat Republicans. I will invade you and waterboard you and take away your Constitutional rights just to get a chance to get my picture taken with Dick Cheney.

I mean, not really. Actually, I’m a pretty nice guy, and obviously modest as well, which is why I’ve talked about myself for 3 paragraphs. Geez, wrap it up, buddy! Who do you think you are? Joe Biden?

So yes, I’m a “RepuGlican”, as some libs call us, and I will be blogging here on what I think about this  political bar fight that we call the 2008 Presidential election (and I might even throw down on some Congressional races as well… you can only hope).

So if you’re a lib, stop reading now. Or actually, read and hate me. I feed off your hate. I’m like Darth Vader trying to turn Luke… wait, *I’m* supposed to be the good guy here! Okay, you’re Darth Vader! Wait, no, that’s not right either, cause Luke was a whiny, prissy, brat of a hero, while Vader was a bad-ass who had the best theme song of any villian EVER.

Hmmm… this is bad. I’ve exposed myself as an egomaniac and a geek-boy all in my first real post. Perhaps I should just pack it in now. It’s not like the world needs “one more blog”. Ah, but maybe you do. Lord knows I see PLENTY of idiots blogging their hearts out who don’t have half the intelligence I possess (really, just GOT to get that ego under control!).

So this is my voice. I hope it’s pleasing to the ear that sleeps in your brain. Or something like that.

A star is born

Well, perhaps that’s overstating the matter. In fact, I’m sure it is. There are blogs and then there are blogs. Mine will be just one of many, no more or less important than any other. It may, however, at times contain wit and searing, irrefutable logic that even the firmest of rocks will not be able to stand against. But mostly, it will just be me, blathering on about what I think.

Pity the poor fools who dare peruse.